Notes from the Oct 25 Open Space: Longevity and Living on Bowen

[John Dumbrille]

Paticipants in this discussion: Carol MacKinnon, Fitch Cody and John Dumbrille.

Abbeyfield and Bowen Court will have 40-42 places, total. Much of the conversation to date on seniors has been centered around these projects getting a win. Fair enough. But if by 2020, ¼ to 1/3 of the community is over 65, what of the other 1000-1500 people? The bigger question, then, is:

“If you plan on living here til you are 80, along with many others, how will that be possible? How do we plan for that?”

Will there be enough assisted living opportunities?
Will things we build today have seniors in mind ( Community Center)?
Will density in the cove give precedence to seniors – who, along with infants, are the most mobility impaired in our community?


Seniors do not have the same values and needs and viewpoints as people fulltime in the workforce, raising children etc. Suggest input from: Seniors, Bowen Islander Stephen Kiaraly ( Eden Project) to share his understanding, as well as the 2 family doctors on the island and/or paramedics and fire dept to contribute to a needs assessment.

[Murray Atherton]

Did we not just give up the opportunity to have a graduated health-care facility that could have been built as part of the CRC Neighbourhood Plan? The developers made all their money by building and operating facilities as outlined in John's posting.
I am trying to do my best (being in my 'early' 60's) by being relatively healthy, working on my strength and balance so as I age, I will do it as gracefully as my role-model neighbour, Jean Cleator. I can harldy keep up to her now, let alone in 20 years!
We, as islanders who do hope that we will be able to live out our lifetimes on Bowen can only hope that our elected leaders will give serious consideration to the long-term future of the population.

[Fitch Cady]

Official Community Plan for Longevity and Living On Bowen ?

As a life long member at the leading edge of the boomer demographic, crossing the age 60 threshold – and still dealing with the shock that age 80 suddenly seems a heck of a lot closer that it once did - “sustainability” has taken on a new twist of meaning.

Within the scope of my lifetime it seems like my personal “sustainability” may increasingly be focused on the foibles of “aging” - an issue that will undoubtedly seize the boomers in the same way that it’s bulge transformed the 1960’s, the status of women, the housing market, financial markets, etc., etc..

At the same time “sustainability” in planetary terms - like the climate 50 years hence - will increasing be about things in which I have an interest but for me will occur beyond my own duration.

It is within this framework I think we need better definition and relevancy on the whole subject of the domain that words like “old”, “senior citizen”, “elder”, “silver heads”, “retirement” “aging”, “geezer”, “over the hill,” “wrinkle cream,” “declining years,” and even “middle age” whenever or whatever that was - don’t serve. They smack of connotations that don’t empower longevity.

If anything characterizes the boomers since leaving their daddy and mommy’s homes in the late 1960’s and beyond - it is empowerment throughout their successive stages of living. It is in the context of "empowerment" that I like framing the question of “Longevity and Living on Bowen” not only for our current elders living here but in advocacy for all of us who hope to be living on Bowen some 20 years hence at ages 70, 80 and beyond.

In short, as usual, we’re going to need stuff. The lack of which stuff motivates current octogenarians to move off the island or to refrain from moving here to live near their younger family members.

All of this within “sustainable,” “green,” “planetary,” and “community” contexts of course. From health care which will become a prime concern, to co-housing, home care for those wish to “age in place” (for which there has to be a more empowering word), to hospice, transport, community gathering, relevancy and volunteerism by elders, and yoga for geezers.

“Geezers” doesn’t seem like such a bad word actually. In the way that gays have advocated “gay” and “queer” to transform culture and perception, perhaps. Boomer Geezerism as an engine for social change and perception of longevity. This will become a preoccupation about the time it finally dawns on them they’re soon going to clock 70, I’d guess. Don’t worry, you’ll hear about it.

So my summary question for this OCP now, rather than leaving it to the next one - by which time it will be more than urgent for the boomers - is what will Bowen be like for geezers during the next 5, 10, 20, 30 to 40 years as the longevity horizon opens? How do we each and all imagine living here on this island as we discover and sustain ourselves as the geezer / codgers we already are or hope someday to become?

This should be in the OCP tab as well as the "Seniors" tab - which should perhaps be labeled as "Elders" - which I don't know how to do.

[Carol MacKinnon]

I heard on the radio this morning that the Lower Mainland will welcome 300,000 new residents by 2021...and I wonder what that has to tell us, about seniors aging in place, and provision of services, ...and much else!

Having parents in their mid90's...who are now struggling with bodies that are basically wearing out, and who still manage to live on Bowen, I think one of the questions in this conversation is about...what can we reasonably expect, without expecting that we'll be treated like prima donnas...what is the greatest good for the greatest number?

[Sally Freeman]

Very interesting comments Fitch and I agree with most of them.

There is something I don't hear very often when this topic comes up. Carol has alluded to it regarding her parents. The reality is that a great number of us have thought about this and because we have been raised in this culture and at this time feel that it is our own responsibility to plan well for our later years. That is what I am doing. If I plan well great, if I don’t whatever happens is my problem. There is a very real possibility that my problem may become my children’s problem, my friend’s problem and finally society’s problem. This is the safety net situation. For me the real questions are how much do we have to strengthen the safety net, do we trust the next generation to do it for us, and finally how much emphasis do we put on this in our current OCP.
I was particularly intrigued by your notion of empowerment and it ties into what I just said. There is a small part of me that hopes when the time comes we will be a force to be reckoned with.

I'm O.K. with geezer but it sounds a tad male.

What tabs are you talking about? I'd be glad to help if I understood what it is you want to do.

[Paul Rickett]

Caveat: This is offered for discussion, I'm not an expert and may be drawing wrong conclusions.

The openspace notes allude to a gap between the 40+ spaces at Abbeyfield and Bowen Court and a projection of residents aged 65+ of between 1000-1500 by 2020. Looking at the 2006 census data a more likely number of 65+ seems to be in the 600-700 range i.e. <20%.

Canada's projection for 65+ population by 2035 is actually 40%. Our average life expectancy today is 80.4 years (78 for men, 83 for women) - no doubt this will increase too but this increase also works to mitigate the potential issue.

We are living longer because we are healthier. Years ago 65 was considered (and backed by statistics) to be the entry point for our dotage. As most of us can attest from personal experience this rather artificial age classification is not necessarily as relevant today. Do we instantly become in need of additional care services at 65, of course not; trend-wise it looks more like 75 is the new 65.

Taking the 2006 census data 640 (20%) of our population is 60+. Within the context of the OCP timeframe this cohort will have largely passed on by 2030. Assuming everyone in the cohorts behind stay on the island then they will be replaced by 1,320 who will be a generally healthier and wealthier group. At 2030, about 670 would be 75+ versus 175 in 2006. Assuming our overall island population increases by double the 2006 census and is not overly skewed by in-migration in the older age groups, then our percentage of population in the higher-support age groups will be about 10%+ . Its not unreasonable to expect a goodly proportion of this group to move off the island to be closer to their families elsewhere in Canada, off set by needs of younger families to import their aging parents - the extent of which we cannot predict as we do not know the demographics of new Islanders. Islanders (of all ages) will still have to leave the island too where medical conditions are severe enough to preclude living here.

Because we will be healthier it is also reasonable to expect the proportion of this group able to stay in their own home with unassisted or with relatively minimal assistance will increase beyond today's proportion.

Finding data on demand for assisted living seems to be difficult but I have gleaned the following(and please don't take this as gospel).

a) about 10% of the population over 65 might have some form of requirement for assisted living
b) This is concentrated in the 80+ age group.

This implies a need for around 130 units based on a projection from the current population. As Bowen is not a retirement destination it might be reasonable to assume that even with population growth that number will not expand too significantly (and you can challenge that). Abbeyfield and Bowen Court account for 46-48 of these, so a deficit of say ~100 units. Murray observed in his post that we 'missed' a chance to get 150 units. Looking at the CRC website I can find no evidence of any calculation of need/demand to support that size (perhaps this was done but I can't find it) and secondly I pose the question "Is it good policy to concentrate these people in one place (creating a ghetto effect maybe?) or would it be better to disperse it in smaller units" - I don't know the answer to that.

This is not to minimise or trivialise anything said above - we do have to plan.

[Wynn Nielsen]

That's really interesting Paul. We need this kind of analysis and information to be able to plan based on factual data and valid projections and not being throwing figures around that may only serve to support a more political or commercial agenda. thank you.

wynn

[Chris Corrigan]

Gosh Paul...that is a wonderfully thorough analysis. Fitch...this gives you some really great material to work into an OCP submission and subsequent conversation with partners.

[Paul Rickett]

Had a quick chat with Stephen Kirialy at the Snug t'other morning. He hasn't read the thread so w/o putting words into his mouth my assessment is generally heading along the right lines & scale.